In his 2002 State of the Union address, President George W. Bush warned us of the activities of an “Axis of Evil” threatening the security of the United States. Well, not to be outdone by our President, I’d like to take this opportunity to introduce you to a new alliance of iniquity threatening the financial security of horseplayers everywhere. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, prepare yourself. In my state of the union address, I’m revealing the members of the horseplayer’s axis of evil.

As horseplayers, we are always seeking value in our selections. Whether you’re wagering on a horse at 15-1, 4-1, 8-5, or 3-5, the ultimate goal is to find the overlay. Yet, while the overlay concept is sound in theory, it’s typically wrecked in practice by all but the most emotionally disciplined of players. As this game isn’t played by rational calculators, but instead by human beings with emotions and defenses, we tend to find ourselves repeatedly supporting false overlays. This is the work of the horseplayer’s axis of evil, which gains its strength by praying on our all-too-human characteristics. Without further ado, let’s meet its membership:

(1) GREED: This first member of the axis is deceptive and devious, and, when we’re not looking, he runs off with large portions of our bankrolls. He makes us think we’re getting value when we’re really just looking to get something for nothing. Through his subtle manipulations, he throws wrenches into a well-reasoned handicapping process, and causes us to lose more money than we would simply by betting the favorite.

Greed shows up all the time in our handicapping, especially in our search for overlays. As horseplayers, we hate short prices. There's risk in every horse race -- a jockey error, a catastrophic injury -- and we must be compensated for this risk. But, unfortunately, on many occasions, a disdain for short prices often clouds our judgment. We perceive negative value and move away from a horse solely because of the low anticipated payout. As opposed to realistically assessing what a race is offering, we stray from our top selection and think we can make more money elsewhere. And, to make matters worse, as you leave your top selection driven by an underlying desire for a greater payout, the second member of the axis of evil rears his ugly little head.

(2) HOPE: Our good friend, Red of The Shawshank Redemption fame, had it right: “Hope is a dangerous thing.” And, much like the classic handicapping quote about time and prison, when it comes to playing the races, hope is best left behind the prison walls. Yes, hope is a wonderful, inspiring feeling that makes you feel happy when things aren’t going well. It’s also something that has absolutely no place in handicapping.

Hope rears its ugly head all throughout the handicapping process, but it’s especially dangerous when you’re dissatisfied with the price you’re going to get on your top selection. You may begin to desperately look for positive things in the other horses. You’ll use words like “maybe…could…possibly.” You know the types of horses, and you’ve seen enough of them come in to convince yourself. But, unfortunately, you’ve come under the spell of hope, and started to let it guide your selections. Sure, that 7-1 could get the lead and come in and pay, but, if you’re thinking like this, you’re doing nothing more than gambling. And, if that’s your game, there are lots of opportunities with a smaller takeout that require a lot less effort. Unfortunately, it’s amazingly difficult to move away from a second choice because of the actions of the final member of our axis of evil.

(3) FEAR: By far the trickiest of the members of the axis, fear subtly influences our selections in several ways. Aware of the effect of scared money and facing the fear of loss, the horseplayer must fearlessly enter a risky environment and stay brave amid tremendous uncertainty. Yet, despite our bravery, fear is not without a weapon here. For if we feign fearlessness where it is unwarranted, he attacks with the fear of regret, which guides us into situations where the risk does not equal the reward.

In sticking to a newfound second choice, the player will seem confident in his selection, but will still be motivated by fear. When making this type of decision, the horseplayer’s phrases are well-known: “I’ll be devastated if I passed on this one”; “This big payday will make my day/week/month; I can’t miss it if it comes in.” (And, believe me. . . I know these phrases all too well. ) Fearful of missing the big payday, you turn a deaf ear to the important cautions in your gut, and place a bet on the new choice. Under the guise of fearlessness, you are married to a selection that doesn’t represent the best of your handicapping ability. There is no quicker way out of the game.

Together, greed, hope, and fear constitute a nasty confederation that confounds the reasoning of the value-seeking horseplayer. Overlays are great theory, but finding one in the heat of the handicapping moment can be an emotional minefield. To counter this, as you continue to participate in this wonderful game, be wary of the axis in your decision-making, especially when betting selections other than your top selection because of a perceived lack of value. Because lurking in the background is a wicked three-headed monster feeding off of our all-too-human characteristics.